NSW councils – post-count

This blog post will be used to track the close counts for the 26 big partisan councils. I’m going to be busy this week packing for a house move so won’t be doing big updates in one go, but I’ll update a council at a time when I get a chance.

If there is no time mentioned, assume the analysis is as of first thing Tuesday morning, September 17. There are 102 contests being tracked. 51 of those contests have an undecided seat, for a total of 62 undecided seats.

Over the next two weeks we will first get the last votes for the initial count – mostly postal and pre-poll votes. And then the check count will involve data entering ballots, which will mean that below-the-line votes will enter the count and we can compare the two counts. I expect many of those 62 undecided seats will be gradually called, and the final seats will be called in early October when the buttons are pushed.

Bayside – ALP 6, LIB 5, PBAY 1, Undecided 3

Wards 1 and 5 are locked down, as are the first two seats in Wards 2, 3 and 4. Labor has won a second seat in Ward 1, and Peaceful Bayside’s Heidi Lee Douglas has won the third seat in Ward 5.

In the other three wards, most pre-poll votes have now been counted, except for Maroubra pre-poll, which will be small in every ward. No postal or declaration votes have been counted.

• Ward 2 – Greens are leading with 0.64 over Hollink on 0.61. Peaceful Bayside have 0.41 quotas and Labor has 0.33. Greens likely to win.
• Ward 3 – Greens are leading with 0.68 over Peaceful Bayside on 0.54. Tsounis is on 0.49 quotas and other candidates have 0.29 quotas. Greens likely to win.
• Ward 4 – Barlow is on 0.63 quotas, Greens on 0.49, Peaceful Bayside on 0.4 and second Labor on 0.4 quotas. Greens will probably benefit from Peaceful Bayside preferences but the gap is quite substantial. Below-the-line votes may also change the likelihood of a seat changing.

Blacktown – ALP 8, LIB 6, Undecided 1

All but one ward is decided. Wards 3, 4 and 5 are split 2-1 in favour of Labor, while Ward 1 is splitting 2-1 in favour of Liberal.

In Ward 2, all election day booths have reported, along with pre-poll at Blacktown, Stanhope Gardens and Tragear and a small batch of postals.

• Ward 2 – Greens are leading with 0.72 over Liberal on 0.66 and Labor on 0.62. The Greens lead is quite narrow, and they could easily slip behind the Liberal Party, and possibly even slip between Labor. If the Liberal Party has a slim lead, it’s likely the runner up will catch up on preferences, but if the gap becomes larger the Liberal Party could win. The Greens will probably lose ground as more pre-poll votes are counted, and postal votes even more so.

Camden – ALP 3, LBT 1, LIB 1, IND 1, Undecided 2

The Central Ward has been decided, as have two seats in the other two wards.

In the North and South wards, all election day votes have been counted along with a small batch of postals in the South Ward.

• North Ward – Independent Suri is leading with 0.97 over the second Libertarian with 0.84. Second Labor candidate Molly Quinnell has 0.21 quotas of preferences, very few of which will be needed to elect the first Labor candidate. One thing worth noting is that Labor’s candidates are below-the-line, so they won’t benefit from many votes currently in the “informal/others” pile being reclassified, so it’s likely the other two groups will increase their vote share. Right now Suri is in a strong position but if her relative position falls back, she doesn’t have a big lead.
• South Ward – Cagney is leading with 0.65 over Campbell with 0.62. Preferences include 0.33 from Sillato, 0.23 from the second Libertarian and 0.17 from the second Labor candidate. Cagney and Campbell are both centre-left independents, and right now it’s hard to pick a favourite.

Campbelltown – 6 ALP, 2 CFTI, 1 GRN, 1 CVA, 1 SUS, 4 Undecided

Eleven seats have been decided. Four of the groups are sitting on close to one quota, but with late counting and the quota being such a small share of the total, they could easily shift up or down quite significantly.

All election day votes have been counted along with pre-poll from Ingleburn and Minto, and a small batch of postals.

At the moment the leading groups for the final four seats are:

• Community Voice – 0.98
• Community First Totally Independent – 0.91
• Greens – 0.90
• Adam Zahra – 0.87
• Labor – 0.54
• Sustainable Australia – 0.53

Labor in particular have already picked up quite a bit of an extra vote, and if the Labor vote was to go up by just 3% they would reach a seventh quota and thus match their result from the 2016 and 2021 elections.

Canterbury-Bankstown – ALP 7, LIB 3, OLC 1, Undecided 4

The Bankstown and Revesby wards have been decided.

Most election day votes have been counted in the other three wards, along with the Ashfield, Georges Hill and Punchbowl pre-poll booths and small postal vote batches.

• Bass Hill – Libertarian is leading with 0.82 over Community Voice with 0.63, Saifo with 0.28 and Labor with 0.27. The Libertarian is the favourite to win.
• Canterbury – Coorey is leading with 0.93 over Greens with 0.81 and Labor with 0.66 quotas, with two seats in play. There are also 0.6 quotas of other preferences to flow. Coorey and Greens are in the lead but either could fall behind Labor depending on late counting.
• Roselands – Our Local Community’s Harry Stavrinos looks set to win the second seat, while Labor is on 0.49, the Greens are on 0.44, Libertarian on 0.37 and Liberal on 0.32. Labor is the favourite to win the third seat.

Central Coast – ALP 5, LIB 4, McKinna 2, Undecided 4

The Gosford East and Wyong wards have been decided.

Most election day booths have reported along with some pre-poll and postal votes.

• Budgewoi – Eaton is leading with 0.76, Mouland is on 0.68 and the Greens are on 0.62. Labor and Central Coast Heart have 0.41 quotas each to distribute. There are two seats available, but the Greens could potentially catch up on one of the two independents.
• Gosford West – Smith and Bellamy are both on 0.48, Brooks is on 0.41 and Abou-Chedid on 0.32.
• The Entrance – Liberal is on 0.49, Animal Justice is on 0.45, Lamont on 0.34, Labor on 0.31 and Bellamy on 0.30.

Cumberland – ALP 4, LIB 3, OLC 2, IND 1, Undecided 5

The Granville and Greystanes wards have been decided.

All election day booths and the Berala, Cumberland RO, Lidcombe and Parramatta pre-poll booths have reported in the other three wards, plus some postal votes in Regents Park and Wentworthville.

• Regents Park – Liberal is leading with 0.71, over Quah on 0.47 and ALP on 0.46. The Liberal Party are a likely winner.
• South Granville – I haven’t called any seats in this ward, with four candidates ranging from 0.71 to 0.98 quotas. Ouf is leading on 0.98 with Our Local Community on 0.84, Labor on 0.82 and Oueik on 0.71.
• Wentworthville – The Greens are leading with 0.72 with Labor on 0.48, Alameh on 0.37 and Liberal on 0.27. The Greens are in a strong position to win.

Fairfield – Carbone-Le 10, ALP 2, IND 1

The mayoral race and both wards are very clear.

Georges River – ALP 5, GRRR 3, LIB 3, IND 1, Undecided 3

The Blakehurst and Hurstville wards have been decided.

In the other three wards, the only votes missing are the Mortdale pre-poll, plus declaration and postal votes.

• Kogarah Bay – GRRR 0.73, ALP 0.59, LIB 0.28, KRA 0.26, LBT 0.14. I’m not quite ready to call this for GRRRP but they are likely to benefit from preferences.
• Mortdale – ALP 0.89, GRRR 0.70, Stojkov 0.23, GRN 0.15. Labor has a lead but it’s not insurmountable.
• Peakhurst – GRRR 1.16, ALP 0.84. No preferences available here. GRRRP will likely win but will need to see if Labor’s vote picks up.

Hornsby – LIB 5, ALP 1, GRN 1, IND 1, Undecided 2

The mayoral race and A Ward have been decided.

In the other two wards, the only votes missing are the Cherrybrook and Hornsby pre-polls, plus declaration and postal votes.

• B Ward – GRN leading with 0.90 over LIB on 0.74 and Sellers on 0.28. Greens do have an edge but that could close.
• C Ward – ALP leading with 0.88 over GRN with 0.84. This race is very close. There’s only 0.10 quota of preferences, so it’s mostly about who has the most primaries.

Inner West – ALP 6, GRN 5, LIB 1, Undecided 3

The Balmain and Leichhardt wards have been decided.

In the other three wards, there is a single election day booth missing, and they have pre-poll votes for Ashfield and Leichhardt booths. Some postal votes have been reported for the Ashfield Ward.

• Ashfield – LIB leading with 0.88, Labor on 0.70 and Greens on 0.52. Greens preferences should strongly favour Labor, so the Liberal Party will need to increase their lead to win. I would say Labor is the favourite here.
• Marrickville – Macri leading with 0.77, Labor on 0.70 and Greens on 0.52. Greens preferences should again favour Labor over the very conservative independent, so I would say Labor is the favourite unless Macri increases his lead.
• Stanmore – Labor leading with 0.76, Greens on 0.69, Liberal on 0.55. Liberal preferences may favour Labor, but I think they’ll mostly exhaust. The Greens will need to pick up their vote to win here.

Lake Macquarie – ALP 5, LIB 3, LMI 3, Undecided 2

The mayoralty and East Ward have been decided. If Labor win the two undecided seats they are leading in, they will win a majority.

In the other two wards, all of the election day booths have reported plus some pre-poll booths.

• North Ward – Labor is leading with 0.96, Greens are on 0.73 and there is 0.31 quotas of other preferences. Those other preferences are relatively conservative so the Greens will need to pick up their vote relative to Labor to win.
• West Ward – Labor is leading with 0.42, Swinsburg is on 0.41, Greens on 0.37, Our Local Community on 0.35, Lake Mac Independents on 0.29 and Dawson on 0.28. Labor is leading but this race is very wide open.

Liverpool – LIB 5, ALP 3, Undecided 3

The mayoralty has been decided. I was originally confused by a number of booths appearing to be empty, but on further examination those are all cases where a booth was used for both wards, and has had mayoral votes recorded for one but not the other. I suspect votes have been counted for both.

For the council, the Liberals have won 4 and Labor has won 3 and likely a fourth. The Liberal-leaning independent Rhodes has clearly lost her seat. Her former ally Harle, who has worked with Labor, is still in with a good chance. Peter Ristevski of Our Local Community, who has been attacked fiercely by the Liberal campaign, is also in with a good chance. So despite winning the mayoralty it is possible the Liberals may be left without allies to form a working majority.

In both wards there are 9 booths missing from the results, plus there is only some pre-poll votes reporting and no postal votes.

• North Ward – Liberal leading with 0.56, LCIT with 0.52, OLC 0.45, Libertarian 0.30. LCIT has a good chance of chasing down the Liberal.
• South Ward – There are two seats left to decide. Labor leads with 0.78, OLC has 0.54, Liberal 0.50, Libertarian 0.40, LCIT 0.29. If the Liberals were to overtake OLC they would hold a council majority, but if they miss out then OLC would be in a key balance of power position.

Mid-Coast – IND 4, LBT 3, ALP 2, GRN 1, Undecided 1

A surprisingly large number of tickets are close to or just over quotas, to the point where ten quotas seem to be filled up by groups polling 0.82 quotas or more.

The elected independents are:

• Alan Tickle and Nicole Turnbull. Tickle won a single seat in 2021 but has gained a 4% swing.
• Peter Howard. Howard was elected as Peter Epov’s second candidate in 2021 but they have suffered a 7.6% swing with Epov’s retirement.
• Jeremy Miller. Miller was first elected in 2021 but has increased his vote by 3.7%.

Four out of seven incumbent independent councillors were running again. Three of them have been re-elected, along with one extra, and the other is currently in the lead for the final seat. The council has more partisan councillors, with Labor gaining a second seat and three Libertarians replacing two Liberals.

For the final seat, sitting councillor Kyle Sandilands leads with 0.52 quotas, over O’Keefe with 0.49, Mellows with 0.3, Howard’s running mate Clancy on 0.27 and Miller’s running mate Ballard on 0.24. Either Sandilands or O’Keefe could win.

Newcastle – ALP 4, LIB 2, GRN 2, OUN 1, Undecided 4

The Newcastle lord mayoralty is the most high-profile undecided race and it is really quite close. The NSWEC has already counted all of the election day and pre-poll votes, and quite a few postal votes – the vast majority of those returned, and almost half of those that could theoretically be returned. It would be great if we could get a notional 2CP count there, but I don’t know if the NSWEC has that ability. If we had that, I suspect this race could be called soon.

Our Newcastle’s Ross Kerridge is leading with 35.16%, with Labor’s incumbent Nuatali Nelmes on 31.85%, the Greens on 14.95% and the Liberal on 12.69%.

For the council wards, Ward 3 has been decided. In the other three wards, we have all the election day booths but no pre-poll, postal or declaration votes.

• Ward 1 – Kerridge leads with 0.8 quotas, followed by Liberal on 0.61 and 0.58 quotas sitting with Labor, Greens or Socialist Alliance. I would expect Kerridge to do better than the Liberal on those preferences so unless his vote drops dramatically with the later vote counts, he’ll win.
• Ward 2 – Greens lead on 0.96, Our Newcastle is on 0.78 and Labor’s second candidate has 0.24 quotas. The Greens are probably fine unless their vote seriously drops. Labor registered how-to-votes recommending a preference to the Greens, and another issuing no preference. I believe the former was handed out.
• Ward 4 – ALP lead on 0.76, Our Newcastle is on 0.65 and Greens are on 0.64. Greens preferences on paper flow to Labor but that may not be followed by Greens voters. Labor is still likely to win.

Northern Beaches – YNB 7, IND 3, GRN 2, GFM 1, Undecided 2

Curl Curl, Narrabeen and Pittwater have been decided.

In the other two wards, we have election day booths fully reported along with the Avalon, Balgowlah and Brookvale pre-poll booths.

• Frenchs Forest – Greens lead with 1.03, YNB’s third candidate is on 0.97. No preferences will be a factor here, but if the Greens vote drops slightly, they’ll lose.
• Manly – Greens lead with 0.69, YNB has 0.56, Labor has 0.45, Good For Manly has 0.3. Preferences will be decisive here but it’s hard to pick it. I suspect Greens will win.

Parramatta – LIB 6, ALP 5, Undecided 4

The North Rocks ward has been decided.

In the other four wards, we have all election day booths and all pre-poll except Carlingford and Ermington.

• Dundas – Community Champions is on 0.85, Our Local Community is on 0.63, Liberal on 0.36, Labor on 0.16. CC’s Darley is the favourite.
• Epping – Lorraine Wearne Independents is on 0.64, Greens on 0.57, Community Champions on 0.40 and Liberal on 0.34. While LWI is leading, the Greens should do better on preferences from CC and I think are the favourite.
• Parramatta – Greens lead on 0.74, OLC on 0.47, Labor on 0.36, Liberal on 0.28. Greens favourite to win.
• Rosehill – ALP lead on 0.69, CC on 0.35, OLC on 0.34, Liberal on 0.29, Noack on 0.24. Labor should probably win this seat.

Penrith – ALP 8, LIB 2, LBT 1, Undecided 4

The East Ward was uncontested, electing five ALP members.

In the remaining wards, we have all election day booths (except Jamisontown in the South Ward), plus Penrith and St Marys pre-poll.

• North Ward – The ALP and Liberal Party have each won two seats. Gardiner is leading for the final seat with 0.62 quotas, with the Greens on 0.57, Cardwell on 0.48, Liberal on 0.26 and Labor on 0.07. Gardiner seems likely to win.
• South Ward – The vote here is almost perfectly split three ways, ranging from 31.35% to 34.77%. So the ALP, Sue Day and the Libertarian Party have each won two seats. For the final seat, the ALP is leading on 1.09 quotas, Sue Day’s second candidate Faithe Skinner on 1.03, and the Libertarian on 0.88 quotas. The Libertarian is behind, but could definitely catch up.

Randwick – ALP 5, LIB 5, GRN 3, IND 1, Undecided 1

The East, North, South and West wards have been decided.

In the one remaining ward, we have all election day booths and all pre-poll except Maroubra.

• Central Ward – Labor’s #2 candidate leads with 0.82 quotas, with the Greens on 0.78 and Liberal on 0.40. I suspect even if the Greens pick up a bit of support they’ll do poorly on Liberal preferences considering the local political context. The local Greens councillor here was the first ever Green to win this ward in 2021 and has increased her vote, but Labor’s vote has increased in the absence of an independent and her window of success has probably closed.

Ryde – LIB 7, ALP 3, IND 1, Undecided 2

The mayoralty and the East Ward has been decided.

In the other wards, all election day booths and most pre-poll has been counted.

• Central Ward – Greens lead for the final seat on 0.85 quotas, with Rizk on 0.61, Labor on 0.44 and Liberal on 0.10. The Greens are likely winners here.
• West Ward – The third Liberal candidate leads on 0.53 quotas, with Alden on 0.48, Labor on 0.43, Kim on 0.37 and Unity on 0.10. The race is hard to pick.

Shoalhaven – SIG 7, ALP 3, Team Tribe 2, Undecided 1

The mayoralty and wards 2 and 3 have been decided.

In Ward 1, we have all but two election day booths, plus one pre-poll booth.

• Ward 1 – Team Tribe’s Selena Clancy leads on 0.93 quotas, with the Greens on 0.84, Shoalhaven Independent Group on 0.21. The Greens would need to pick up quite a few votes to win.

Sutherland – LIB 6, ALP 5, Undecided 2

Wards B and D have been decided.

In Wards A, C and E, all election day both shave reported, plus three pre-poll booths.

If the Liberal Party win two of the undecided races where they are leading, that will give them a majority.

• Ward A – Two seats left to decide. Glanznig is leading on 0.77 quotas, with ALP on 0.59, Provan on 0.58, Liberal on 0.45 and Farmer on 0.38. Glanznig is a favourite for the second seat, with Labor and Provan the leading contenders for the third.
• Ward C – Liberal leads with 0.73, followed by Carmelo Pesce with 0.67, Labor with 0.32 and Libertarian with 0.29. On current numbers the Liberal will win, but more counting could put Pesce in front.
• Ward E – Liberal leads with 0.91, with Cowell on 0.80 and Labor on 0.28. Cowell would need a very strong Labor preference flow to win, but if her vote picks up slightly she’ll be the favourite.

Sydney – Moore Team 4, ALP 2, GRN 1, LIB 1, Yvonne Weldon 1, Undecided 1

The lord mayoralty has been decided, along with eight out of nine council seats.

In the council count, we have results from all election day booths and some pre-poll booths.

The Greens are leading with 0.7 quotas for the final seat, followed by Libertarian on 0.41, Liberal on 0.33, Danieli on 0.26, and Moore’s fourth candidate on 0.2. The Greens are the favourite, but if they do poorly on postal votes it could get closer.

The Hills – LIB 9, ALP 2, Undecided 2

The mayoralty and the Central and West wards have been decided.

In the other wards, all election day booths have reported along with the Castle Hill pre-poll booth.

• East Ward – Labor is leading with 0.90 quotas, with the Greens on 0.84 and Liberal on 0.25. Very close race.
• North Ward – Labor is leading with 0.72 quotas, with the Greens on 0.70 and the Liberal on 0.58. Very close race.

Tweed – LIB 2, ALP 1, GRN 1, IND 2, Undecided 1

Six out of seven council seats have been decided.

In the council count, we have all election day booths plus some pre-poll booths.

Independent councillor Chris Cherry has been re-elected, and Kimberly Hone has successfully replaced Warren Polglase as a conservative independent.

For the final race, incumbent independent Meredith Dennis leads with 0.52 quotas, with Liberal 0.38, Turner on 0.35, Usher on 0.34, and Labor on 0.21. Dennis is the favourite.

If Dennis wins, that will maintain a 4-3 progressive majority on council, but a Liberal win would change the shape of the council.

Wollongong – ALP 8, GRN 3, IND 1, Undecided 1

The lord mayoralty and wards 2 and 3 have been decided.

In Ward 1, we have all but one election day booth plus the small Berkeley pre-poll booth.

• Ward 1 – For the final seat, independent Ryan Morris is leading with 0.89 quotas, with the second Green on 0.77, Labor on 0.18, de Vive 0.16. Morris is leading but a small increaase in the Greens vote could change that.