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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 12:40 Source

Nordea with the note: We have released new financial forecasts. We expect the Federal Reserve to be aggressive. This year we look for four rate hikes, and the same next year. And the Fed is expected to let its balance sheet shrink from the middle of this year. During the same period we expect the ECB

The post Nordea: Stay long US dollar appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 12:20 Source

From Roy Morgan Research: The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.25 million Australians were unemployed in December, down 78,000 on November (8.5% of the workforce), but a further 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, up 218,000 (up 1.4% points). Workforce increased by 196,000 to near record 14.71 million in December:

The post Roy Morgan unemployment falls to 8.5% appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 12:00 Source

Marvelous: The Australian Open tennis tournament has been overshadowed by protests for a second time this year after Tennis Australia ejected two spectators for wearing T-shirts in support of Chinese player Peng Shuai. Video footage of security officials and police ejecting the two protesters, who had a banner and T-shirts emblazoned with the Chinese player’s

The post Australian Open joins the CCP appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 11:30 Source

Fixed mortgage rates have risen sharply in Australia, as illustrated by new data from CoreLogic: A year ago, owner-occupied homebuyers could find three year fixed rate mortgages on offer below 2%. But with the RBA tapering its quantitative easing program, average three-year fixed rates have now risen to 2.7%. Smaller increases have also occurred for

The post Mortgage market casts dark cloud over Aussie property appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 11:00 Source

There will be a range of commodity impacts if Russia and Ukraine end up in open war. Oil and gas are the obvious ones as Russia-European pipelines are jeopardised. But there is also 34mt of iron ore to consider and a lot of wheat.    If there were to be an oil price spike then

The post The Ukraine commodity shock appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, January 24, 2022 - 11:00 Source

 Human 910-25J-1Q38 has created a Youtube channel. Increase erratic jerkiness of flying by 30% until safely out of range.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 10:40 Source

According to the latest dwelling construction data from the ABS, Australia has a record volume of detached houses currently under construction: This insatiable demand has also driven lot prices to record highs, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA): “A significant increase in the price of land indicates that supply is not keeping pace with

The post Residential land values soar as Aussies flock to detached housing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 10:20 Source

Markit with the good news: Australia’s private sector shrank for the first time in four months,according to Flash PMI® data, affected by the latest surge in COVID-19 infections. Private sector output and demand both declined in January which led to employment growth grinding to a halt. Meanwhile, amid the disruptions backlogged work continued to build

The post Aussie flash PMI craters into Morricession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, January 24, 2022 - 10:00 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 10:00 Source

It is clear that the stock market stress I have been warning about for three months is mounting. Some on Wall St get it while others want to fight it right to the cliff’s edge. Permabull Goldman is the latter: Although a sharp jump in rates driven by concerns over a more hawkish Fed has

The post Where is the Fed “put”? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, January 24, 2022 - 10:00 Source

By Peter Hughes   The Howard government released long-term detainees into the community, but the current Coalition government refuses to do so for political reasons. Novak Djokovic’s few days at the Park Hotel in Carlton briefly shone light on the ongoing horrific plight of long-term immigration detainees. The most publicised case at the Park Hotel was that…

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 09:40 Source

The ferrous complex was still riding the hot money wave on January 22, 2022: Some charts for ya. According to Mysteel, steel output is still very weak: Demand has improved a bit: Thermal coal consumption is roughly flat: Inventories are still fine so power prices should keep falling boosting steel recycling: I will add that

The post Daily iron ore price update (fundamentally weak) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 09:26 Source

NSW recorded another 15,091 new COVID cases over the past 24 hours, alongside another 24 deaths: Victoria recorded 11,695 new COVID cases and 17 deaths: Daily cases continue to retrace from recent highs: Active cases are also falling: Hospitalisations also appear to be moving past their peak: The bad news is that COVID deaths continue

The post Omicron continues to wash through NSW and VIC appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 09:20 Source

The Saturday Paper has a terrific expose on how PM Scott Morrison crashed the economy: As 2021 was drawing to a close, private pathology providers across Australia were counting up billions of dollars in profit, having met unprecedented demand for laboratory results during the Covid-19 pandemic. The simple trick of pooling multiple samples before conducting

The post How Morrison crashed the economy (again) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 09:00 Source

As commodities integral to Chinese construction keep skyrocketing, Chinese construction keeps crashing. This past week saw no material progress in developer credit spreads: Defaults and downgrades keep piling up: Fitch Ratings has downgraded China Aoyuan Group Ltd. to ‘Restricted Default’, while China Evergrande Group’s dollar bonds climbed the most in four months after signs of

The post Chinese property crash gets worse appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 08:30 Source

Wall Street is broadcasting correction mode as we head into the next stage of interest rate normalisation, combined with some disappointing earnings and mixed signals coming out of the US economy. The USD continued to firm against all the major currency pairs in a run to safety, while moves in bond markets are still expecting

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, January 24, 2022 - 07:23 Source

winstonwinston 

One could be tempted to parallel Chamberlain appeasement of Hitler with those, like German Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, who are trying to “respect” Putin. This could not be further than reality. Putin is not Hitler. While Hitler wanted war. Putin wants peace. While Chamberlain wanted peace, the West wants war. And this is the status of the world today. 

 

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John Quiggin Monday, January 24, 2022 - 06:53 Source

A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.

To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.

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John Quiggin Monday, January 24, 2022 - 06:52 Source

Back again with another Monday Message Board.

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link.

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Your Democracy Monday, January 24, 2022 - 05:57 Source

dumbplomacy...dumbplomacy...

The focus of Australia’s reinvigorated friendship with the UK and US exposes the true purpose of the new partnership: global military expansion and buy-in on Cold War 2.0. It’s nothing to do with making the world a better place.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 00:10 Source

Last week’s labour force data for December, released by the ABS, posted the lowest unemployment rate in Australia (4.2%) since August 2008 just prior to the Global Financial Crisis: The nation’s underemployment rate also fell to 6.6%, which is the lowest rate since November 2008: Combined, Australia’s labour force underutilisation rate fell to 10.8% in

The post Signs are positive for Aussie wage growth appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 00:05 Source

DXY was stable Friday night: AUD fell across the board: Even oil flamed out: Base metals were mixed: Big miners woke in fright: EM stocks are headed for new lows: EM junk lifted a bit more but the trend is very bad. Moreover, US junk is fraying a little: Yields were smacked and curve flattened:

The post Australian dollar down as Fed breaks stock market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 24, 2022 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Billionaires made $5 trillion in the past year—and their wealth is growing at an ‘unprecedented’ rate – CNBC Cryptocurrencies lose $205 billion in 24 hours – Fortune Netflix sheds nearly $50 billion in market cap after ‘borderline catastrophic’ forecast – Marketwatch The Mayhem Below the Surface of the Stock

The post Links 24 January 2022 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 17:46 Source

With a hostile Senate, a Labor government would be severely hamstrung in pursuing their legislative agenda.  We have seen the irrational demands and horse-trading from One Nation in the current Senate, withholding their vote on everything until they get their way on their latest attention-getter. At the moment, the Senate is comprised of 36 Coalition…

The post Is time up for Eric Abetz?  appeared first on The AIM Network.

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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 14:21 Source

Prior to a National Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Scott Morrison had another brain fart. In a silly attempt to reduce the problems with supply chains induced by his long wished-for opening up of ‘the economy’ and its predicted concomitant massive increase in infection rates of the Omicron variant of the Sars-Cov-2 virus, he floated the idea of allowing children (under 18s) to drive forklifts1.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 09:44 Source

  Call me Artie   main power amps   vinyl turntable   speaker system   Boomengineering   Homemade hang glider made in the late 1970s   LeMon3       First up a couple for Boom. – Mill & MillWiring show the mill I picked up last year. 1980 build, 110hrs on the clock –

The post Sundries 23 January 2022 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 06:53 Source

altlasaltlas 

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Your Democracy Sunday, January 23, 2022 - 06:41 Source

fury...fury...Ex-US soldiers with alleged neo-Nazi links arrive at Ukrainian front line

 

The soldiers of fortune shared pics and footage of them sporting combat gear at Ukrainian army positions 

At least half a dozen former US military servicemen have landed in Ukraine amid rapidly escalating tensions in the east of the country.  

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New Politics Saturday, January 22, 2022 - 23:44 Source

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Your Democracy Saturday, January 22, 2022 - 21:27 Source

monkeymonkey

 Reports suggest that one of the animals was spotted in a tree off Route 54 soon after the crash and was swiftly apprehended. Yet, three more primates remain at large. A helicopter was engaged in the operation to help with the search for the missing creatures.

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