Blogotariat

The Market Ear with the latest. NASDAQ – working on the break out Above the negative trend line, above the 12k level, but still below the 200 day moving average. The “tech as the main pain trade” logic continues to work very well and frustration is running high. Let’s see how far they “must” chase

The post Stocks fight the bear appeared first on MacroBusiness.

John Kemp has a piece today that is well worth repeating: In the first scenario, the global economy tips into recession, cutting distillate consumption, boosting inventories and lowering prices. Lower diesel costs filter through to the manufacturing and transport sectors and contribute to a deceleration in inflation. In the second scenario, the economy continues growing,

The post Oil a problem for any global soft landing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

A good take on China’s reopening from Societe General. This is why I am skeptical of iron ore and coking coal bull markets running beyond H1 inventory building. Consumer to lead: Property in liquidity trap as demographics plunge: Fiscal to step in but infrastructure to slow: And exports to bust: Not your father’s China recovery.

The post China consumer boom means construction bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released new home sales data for December, which “continue to decline sharply following the fastest increase in the cash rate in a generation”: “Sales of new homes fell by 4.6% in December”, according to the HIA, “leaving sales in the final quarter of 2022 a remarkable 42.0% lower than

The post Reserve Bank crashes Aussie new home sales appeared first on MacroBusiness.

After the inflation shocker a few days ago, the outlook for a deeper Australian recession is taking shape. It will be driven by two extra interest rate hikes in the next two months, ensuring that house prices continue to fall fast and households experience a material asset price shock with consumption to follow. It was

The post Australian recession takes centre stage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: McDonald’s, In-N-Out, and Chipotle are spending millions to block raises for their workers | CNN Business Russian FM says BRICS group to consider common currency – AANews Americas: Georgia’s Former Lt. Gov. Says There’s Enough Evidence to Indict Trump – Newsweek Lawyer: Admins were warned 3 times the day

The post Links 27 January 2023 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Despite all the fannying around by politicians indicating that the Covid-19 pandemic is over and that we are in a post-Covid-19 time1, 2, and despite all the prognostications, by some people like Fabio Codswallop (i.e. Nick Coatsworth), who should know better, that the Covid-19 pandemic would end last year3, it is not over, not by a long chalk.

In the weeks after the Victorian election, I saw some analysis looking at the geographic patterns of support for some of the parties. One of the things I was most interested in identifying was the relationship between informal voting trends and support for particular parties.

YOU DON’T KNOW ME FROM A SOAP PUMP (SOAP-BARS ARE SO PASSé). BUT I WOULD LIKE TO REMIND YOU THAT THE TIME OF HAVING FUN WITH AMERICAN/AUSTRALIAN/WORLD POLITICS HAS COME TO AN END. 

THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAKY-LEFTY, GEORGE SOROS.