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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The Market Ear with the post-Fed news. Ready to move Gold is very trapped inside the massive triangle like formation. Note the last bounce on the 100 day. Expect a sharp break out soon… Source: LSEG Workspace Why so low? GDX to gold… Source: LSEG Workspace The dollar connection Gold likes a weak dollar, but

The post Gold readies blast off appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 12:20 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 12:19 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 12:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Goldman with an important note. We have previously argued Australia’s labour market is not inflationary because indicators that contain the most predictive power for wage growth have already normalised. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is historically low, boosted by employment in the healthcare & social assistance industry, and it is not obvious why this has not

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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 11:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 11:42 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the monthly CPI indicator for July, which reported a sharp jump in both headline and trimmed mean CPI inflation. Headline CPI rose 2.8% in the 12 months to July 2025, up from 1.9% in the year to June. The result was way above economists’ expectations of a

The post Electricity bills spike Aussie inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Ferrous is weakening inexorably, succumbing to seasonal weakness. CISA output data for August bounced from the lows, but steel inventory is climbing. SMM has the wrap. The impact of yesterday’s supply-side incident on market sentiment has gradually weakened, and the price logic has returned to the fundamentals. According to SMM survey data, this week, the impact

The post Iron ore levitates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) released a bizarre ‘analysis’ claiming that the federal government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers would ultimately help to lower property prices and rents. The HIA claims that the $25,000 average amount required to pay for lenders’ mortgage insurance (LMI) “meant fewer new households could buy a home”, which

The post Australian house prices to soar appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 10:55 Source

Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 0.12% in July. ‘Slow motion’ recovery continues to underwhelm. Main headwind coming from commodity price falls and higher AUD. Softer tone from labour market but other components lacking direction. Even with this small improvement, the Leading Index still points to sluggish growth momentum in

The post Leading index: Economy is “slow motion” recovery appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Australia already has the highest per capita share of international students in the developed world. As of Q2 2025, there were 821,251 people in Australia on either a temporary student visa or a graduate visa. As a result, around 3% of the nation’s population was on either a student or graduate visa in Q2 2025.

The post International students demand higher entry standards appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Erin Rolandsen, CEO of Angelassist, penned an article for MB on Tuesday explaining how Australia’s public service has been outsourced to Big Four consulting firms: The truth is undeniable: our parliamentary departments have been hollowed out by decades of outsourcing. Whereas they once held expertise, they are now mere husks whose only remaining function is

The post Australia’s growing shadow bureaucracy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Wavefunction collapse is only one interpretation. Under some interpretations, graduate students also have souls.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The sight of so many flabby central bankers running nowhere inside a rat wheel is enough to make you barf. That’s what we got yesterday in the RBA minutes. The staff’s forecasts for GDP growth in the medium term had been reduced a little because of a lower assumed rate of productivity growth to which

The post RBA notices rat wheel economy, turns dovish appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets continue to have second thoughts about the dovish mood at the Federal Reserve with the added volatility around the Trump regime looking to takeover the Fed’s independence itself not helping the USD.  Although Euro is seeing some kickback due to French political problems, Yen, Pound Sterling and the Australian dollar are all heading

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 07:10 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 07:08 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Recently a case was made that the Reserve Bank and the Albanese government did not deserve to be blamed for the deterioration in Australian living standards and real wages, due to the fact that similar trends were present throughout much of the developed world. While there is certainly truth to the idea that other advanced

The post The ‘Lucky Country’s’ uniquely disastrous economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets are failing to translate the Friday night gains on Wall Street due to the seemingly dovish pivot by the US Federal Reserve as risk markets patiently wait and see what the Trump regime is up to with trying to fire members of the Board, adding to currency volatility at least. The USD

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 15:32 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 14:41 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 14:31 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 14:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Goldman with the outlook. AUD, NZD, & CAD: Caution signs. Cyclical G10 currencies, AUD, NZD, and CAD, have underperformed in August. After touching or nearly-reaching our 3-month targets, each has doubled back weaker versus the Dollar over the past month. Risk has been under pressure and could be weighing on the more cyclical parts of

The post Major bank: Australian dollar to crawl higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Australia’s pivot to Palestine, which has no practical implications for anything or anybody outside of Albo’s politicking, is developing into a major risk to the Australian national interest. While the nation sinks into the greatest distraction since the Rubik’s Cube, Australia’s real strategic settings are dangerously adrift, which appears to be exactly how Albo’s cowards

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The state of Victoria has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, Victoria’s unemployment rate was 4.55% in July, 0.32% above the weighted average of the rest of the nation. The next chart from CBA plots trend unemployment rates across the states and shows that Victoria’s

The post Victoria: the unemployed state appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 13:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The Australian government has cancelled the use of the word “immigration” internally, including at supposedly “independent” entities such as the RBA and PC. Now the government is wasting taxpayer dollars trying to eliminate the word from media coverage. A nice juxtaposition comes from the US today, where democracy still exists, and the US government is

The post How grownups discuss immigration and the economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 12:00 Source

This deal is the worst-case scenario for Aussie gas: The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s international investment arm and its partners were given a second extension on Monday to continue conducting exclusive due diligence of Adelaide-based energy giant Santos – more than two months after their non-binding takeover agreement was reached in June. Santos has

The post Crush the Santos takeover appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, August 26, 2025 - 11:52 Source

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