Blogotariat

New data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that dwelling approvals rebounded by 9.9% in May but were down 20.9% year-on-year. The rebound was driven by unit approvals, which surged 32.0%, whereas house approvals fell 2.7%. Over the year, houses approvals fell 29.5% whereas unit approvals fell 5.4%. The next chart,

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Despite mass ministerial resignations/retirements, Melbourne’s seven months of hard lockdowns, mass privatisations (despite promising otherwise), and a raft of other controversies, Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Government is cruising for an even bigger victory at the upcoming Victorian election: The ALP on 59.5% has a large election-winning lead in Victoria well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5%

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The MSM has been enjoying its usual fixation with symbolism over substance with the arrival of a like-minded Labor government. Such topics as transgender sports, infinitesimal CENSUS drivel and other social causes have all been furiously debated. It is, therefore, something of a relief to find this obsession with fantasy over reality has been clubbed

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The AFR’s latest survey of 31 economists reveals a median forecast for the official cash rate (OCR) of 2.35% by December and a peak of 2.85%. Thus, Australia’s OCR would rise another 2.0% from its current level under the economists’ median projection. The futures market remains even more bullish, tipping an OCR of 3.0% by

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Michael Hartnett at BofA leads us off: Tale of the Tape: in‘22 commodities on course for best year since 1946(Chart 3), govt bonds worst year since 1865(Chart 2), S&P500 (real terms–Chart 4) worst since 1872. The Price is Right: in Q2’22 commodity gains moderated (8.4% vs 35.0% in Q1)…”inflation shock”consensus, big gains in US$ (6.9%),

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According to Prashad, while “many of the assassins’ bullets have been fired by people who had their own parochial interests, petty rivalries and small-minded gains, more often than not, these have been ‘Washington’s bullets.’”

Their main purpose, he says, was to “contain the tidal wave that swept from the October Revolution of 1917 and the many waves that whipped around the world to form the anti-colonial movement.”

Sunday morning’s Australian Broadcasting Corporation political journalist panel show ‘Insiders’1  was unusual in that it was hosted by Patricia Karvelas2. It is usually hosted by the answer interrupter David Speers. It was also unusual in that it did not have a Murdoch or Sevenwest hack on the panel. On the panel were Narelda Jacobs (Channel 10), Shane Wright (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and Sarah Martin (The Guardian). In addition, Karvelas did not interview a politician from either of the major parties, but the newly minted independent senator from the Australian Capital Territory, David Pocock3.

China is bouncing out of COVID and into world of pain. Goldman: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June from 48.1 in May on resumption of production as Covid cases dropped and restrictions eased. Among five major components, the output sub-index increased to 56.4 from 43.2, the largest single-month rebound since early 2020.

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While the Anglo-Saxons have already succeeded in excluding Russia from the Council of Europe and are preparing to prevent it from participating in OSCE meetings, they are working to sink the European Union by creating a competing structure in Central Europe: the Three Seas Initiative. In doing so, they are taking up an old Polish project aimed at developing this region while preserving it from any German or Russian influence.

When somebody “proper” says it, it must be true. It is all coming sooner than Nomura says but at least it is finally saying it. I might add that Nomura also sees a global recession commencing this year and particularly large busts across DMs. As for how bad it gets in Australia and when the

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DXY again pushed for new highs on Friday night but failed. It remains a very bullish chart: AUD was pulverised and broke key support. Look out below as the crosses cracked too: Oil was bid, sadly: Goldman’s commodity bubble is bursting spectacularly. The idea that you buy commodities as a hedge against commodities remains preposterous:

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