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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 14:00 Source

The Grattan Institute has released a new report warning of risks to Australia’s social fabric if the transition to a net zero economy is not well managed, with ten of thousands of coal-mining jobs tipped to disappear over coming decades. Grattan has described the transition as the ‘next industrial revolution’, but claims that Australia’s current

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Renew Economy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 13:39 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 13:30 Source

New data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that dwelling approvals rebounded by 9.9% in May but were down 20.9% year-on-year. The rebound was driven by unit approvals, which surged 32.0%, whereas house approvals fell 2.7%. Over the year, houses approvals fell 29.5% whereas unit approvals fell 5.4%. The next chart,

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Renew Economy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 13:17 Source

Australia transmission network infrastructure - canva - optimised

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 13:00 Source

Despite mass ministerial resignations/retirements, Melbourne’s seven months of hard lockdowns, mass privatisations (despite promising otherwise), and a raft of other controversies, Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Government is cruising for an even bigger victory at the upcoming Victorian election: The ALP on 59.5% has a large election-winning lead in Victoria well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5%

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Renew Economy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 12:58 Source

Minister for Energy Angus Taylor during Question Time in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra.</body></html>

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Renew Economy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 12:48 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 12:30 Source

The Australian mortgage market held firm in May, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) commencing its rate tightening cycle with its initial 0.25% hike. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the total value of new mortgage commitments rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in May 2022, but was down 0.4% year-on-year: Owner-occupier commitments

The post Property investors continue to pile into mortgage market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 12:00 Source

The MSM has been enjoying its usual fixation with symbolism over substance with the arrival of a like-minded Labor government. Such topics as transgender sports, infinitesimal CENSUS drivel and other social causes have all been furiously debated. It is, therefore, something of a relief to find this obsession with fantasy over reality has been clubbed

The post Albo’s cowards’ China reset collapses into Morrison insults appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, July 4, 2022 - 11:38 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 11:30 Source

The AFR’s latest survey of 31 economists reveals a median forecast for the official cash rate (OCR) of 2.35% by December and a peak of 2.85%. Thus, Australia’s OCR would rise another 2.0% from its current level under the economists’ median projection. The futures market remains even more bullish, tipping an OCR of 3.0% by

The post Markets, economists still dead wrong on Australian interest rates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 11:07 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 11:00 Source

Michael Hartnett at BofA leads us off: Tale of the Tape: in‘22 commodities on course for best year since 1946(Chart 3), govt bonds worst year since 1865(Chart 2), S&P500 (real terms–Chart 4) worst since 1872. The Price is Right: in Q2’22 commodity gains moderated (8.4% vs 35.0% in Q1)…”inflation shock”consensus, big gains in US$ (6.9%),

The post When will the bear market end? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 10:30 Source

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) index of commodity prices fell 1.6% in June in SDR (currency-weighted) terms, which follows May’s sharp 5.3% decline: Over the June quarter commodity prices fell 0.6% over the quarter but were 24.3% higher year-on-year in SDR terms. The RBA’s commodity price index in SDR terms has historically closely tracked

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Your Democracy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 10:05 Source

According to Prashad, while “many of the assassins’ bullets have been fired by people who had their own parochial interests, petty rivalries and small-minded gains, more often than not, these have been ‘Washington’s bullets.’”

Their main purpose, he says, was to “contain the tidal wave that swept from the October Revolution of 1917 and the many waves that whipped around the world to form the anti-colonial movement.”

 

 

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 10:00 Source

The ferrous complex was hit hard on July 1, 2022: The reasons is pretty simple. Chinese steel mills are out of room to store overproduced steel: In China’s biggest steelmaking province Hebei, local media reported that some mills had opted to implement an annual overhaul of furnaces earlier than usual, citing no more extra room

The post Daily iron ore price update (no more room) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, July 4, 2022 - 10:00 Source

It's sad seeing those videos of turbine blade being torn apart in high winds, but it's the only way they can disperse their seeds.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 09:40 Source

CoreLogic’s preliminary auction report suggests Sydney’s housing bust is deepening, with a preliminary clearance rate of just 52.5% recorded across the city over the weekend – the worst auction result since April 2020: Sydney’s poor clearance rate, combined with its high volumes, helped drive the national clearance rate down to just 55.0% – also the

The post Sydney’s housing market bust accelerates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Monday, July 4, 2022 - 09:33 Source

Sunday morning’s Australian Broadcasting Corporation political journalist panel show ‘Insiders’1  was unusual in that it was hosted by Patricia Karvelas2. It is usually hosted by the answer interrupter David Speers. It was also unusual in that it did not have a Murdoch or Sevenwest hack on the panel. On the panel were Narelda Jacobs (Channel 10), Shane Wright (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and Sarah Martin (The Guardian). In addition, Karvelas did not interview a politician from either of the major parties, but the newly minted independent senator from the Australian Capital Territory, David Pocock3.

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John Quiggin Monday, July 4, 2022 - 09:22 Source

Another Message Board

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’ve moved my irregular email news from Mailchimp to Substack. You can read it here. You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin

I’m also trying out Substack as a blogging platform. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 09:20 Source

China is bouncing out of COVID and into world of pain. Goldman: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June from 48.1 in May on resumption of production as Covid cases dropped and restrictions eased. Among five major components, the output sub-index increased to 56.4 from 43.2, the largest single-month rebound since early 2020.

The post China bounces directy into new shock appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 09:00 Source

Risk sentiment soured on bond markets on Friday night as the latest US ISM manufacturing survey dropped to a two year low. While Wall Street bounced back nearly 1%, European stocks struggled as the whole risk complex is still contending with recession fears in the wake of central banks trying to combat inflation with more

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Your Democracy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 06:45 Source

While the Anglo-Saxons have already succeeded in excluding Russia from the Council of Europe and are preparing to prevent it from participating in OSCE meetings, they are working to sink the European Union by creating a competing structure in Central Europe: the Three Seas Initiative. In doing so, they are taking up an old Polish project aimed at developing this region while preserving it from any German or Russian influence.

 

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Your Democracy Monday, July 4, 2022 - 06:17 Source

The US and Russia mark Pearl Harbor and Hitler's invasion very differently – that tells us a lot about national identity

Over generations, perceptions distort history, and keeping memory alive is important for national identity

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 00:06 Source

When somebody “proper” says it, it must be true. It is all coming sooner than Nomura says but at least it is finally saying it. I might add that Nomura also sees a global recession commencing this year and particularly large busts across DMs. As for how bad it gets in Australia and when the

The post It’s official: Australian recession imminent appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 00:05 Source

The surge in Australian house prices over the pandemic increased the value of Australia’s stock to around $10 trillion, pushing total housing assets to an all-time high 6.6 times household income – up from 5.1 times income immediately before the pandemic: According to CoreLogic, this boom in values drove housing’s share of household wealth to

The post Plunging house prices will torch Aussie household wealth appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 00:03 Source

DXY again pushed for new highs on Friday night but failed. It remains a very bullish chart: AUD was pulverised and broke key support. Look out below as the crosses cracked too: Oil was bid, sadly: Goldman’s commodity bubble is bursting spectacularly. The idea that you buy commodities as a hedge against commodities remains preposterous:

The post Australian dollar pulverised as commodity bubble bursts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 4, 2022 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Cognitive Impact of Severe COVID Is Equivalent to 20 Years of Aging, Study Finds – Science Alert ‘Perfect storm’ of crises is widening global inequality, says UN chief – The Guardian Exxon Sees Massive $5.5 Billion Refinery Windfall as Prices Jump – Bloomberg Bitcoin rally falters as digital assets

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Your Democracy Sunday, July 3, 2022 - 15:44 Source

John Bolton makes prediction for Ukraine conflict

Biden has “made mistake after mistake” in handling the crisis, the hawkish Republican and former US national security adviser says.

 

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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, July 3, 2022 - 15:27 Source

Six of the nine justices on the US Supreme Court, which recently overturned the Roe v Wade decision, are current or former members of the Federalist Society. Founded in 1982, the Federalist Society has played a major role in “deliberately, diligently shifting the country’s judiciary to the right”. As well as training and socialising conservative law students, lawyers and professors, the society helps appoint young conservatives to prominent positions in government and to the bench. It has been very successful in this.

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