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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 14:20 Source

Standard Chartered with the note. Recall that they were just about the most bullish in the market prior to the release: Work disincentives likely a future issue, but not in April There is a lot of discussion on the big forecast miss of April non-farm payrolls (NFP). The consensus was for around 1mn jobs, our forecast

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 14:00 Source

Roy Morgan has released its business confidence survey for April, which reveals that confidence hit a seven year high 125.3 – up 48.4 points (+62.9%) on a year ago. Business Confidence is now 11.6 points above the long-term average of 113.7, with 65% of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 13:40 Source

Analysis of major banks’ latest financial results shows that the amount they paid via the federal government’s controversial bank levy rose by about $50 million to $850 million at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The quarterly levy of 0.015% on banks with liabilities of more than $100 billion was introduced in 2017. And The

The post AFR takes aim at ‘unfair’ bank levy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 13:20 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages data for the week ended 24 April 2021, which showed that payroll jobs are now running 1.9% above their pre-COVID level, whereas total wages are up 2.8%: Payroll jobs and wages are now running higher than pre-COVID levels across every jurisdiction: Women

The post Male workers lag jobs rebound appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 13:00 Source

Herbert Smith Freehills partner Michael Vrisakis says there is nothing preventing an employer from offsetting an increase in the superannuation guarantee (SG) on 1 July by reducing take-home pay, so long as their employees’ remuneration packages are inclusive of super. He was commenting on a survey by Mercer which found that 63% of organisations which

The post Survey: Superannuation increase will crush wage growth appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 12:52 Source

For the past year or so, we have watched in amazement at what we have labeled the Amphetamine Cycle. This is the dramatically accelerated series of cyclical and factor rotations within equities and broader markets that have so far delivered: An equities crash down. Unimaginable stimulus. An equities crash up. AUD crash then rocket. Bond

The post Afterpay boom and bust today, iron ore tomorrow appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 12:40 Source

A terrific note from The Atlantic’s David Frum sums it all up: China was mentioned only four times in Joe Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, but it shadowed almost every line of the speech. “We’re in a competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century,” Biden said. His

The post China is a paper dragon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 12:20 Source

New research from Roy Morgan Research shows the preference for Australian-made goods rose during 2020, but fell for goods from Australia’s largest trading partner China. A huge majority of 93% of Australians said they are more likely to buy products made in Australia – up from 87% a year earlier. This was led by baby

The post Aussies boycott Chinese made goods appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 12:00 Source

Deutsche with the note on why elevated US activity and inflation are not over yet: Sorry, we’re out of stock So far, share markets have been relatively calm about supply chain problems. This could signal investor complacency given that reports of supply chain shortages and price jumps have been hard to avoid. One of the

The post Crack! Beware the inflation bullwhip appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 11:40 Source

Last week, Jacinda Ardern’s Labor Government tasked the New Zealand Productivity Commission (PC)  with undertaking a system-wide review of the nation’s immigration program, with particular focus on the “impact of immigration on the labour market, housing and associated infrastructure, and the natural environment”. The goal of the inquiry is to “enable New Zealand to strategically

The post Productivity Commission: Mass immigration stifles productivity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 11:24 Source

Some politicians struggle to understand the difference between a big battery and a big banana. One of them is not edible, the other will lay the path to a renewables grid.

The post Video: Batteries and big bananas appeared first on RenewEconomy.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 11:20 Source

Nordea with the note: Only Elon Musk disappointed more than the job report over the weekend (watch the price action in Dog(e)coin, in case you are curious), but some odds effects may be in play currently. Jobs openings are plentiful, but they are just hard to fill due to 1) mobility issues, 2) Covid-fears and

The post Mind the EUR crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 11:00 Source

Recently, Domain claimed that the price differential between house and apartments had hit 66%, which is the widest gap on record. New data released from CoreLogic’s Tim lawless via Twitter confirms this view, also claiming “the ‘value gap’ between house and unit values [is] the widest on record”, which “could see affordability pressures gradually divert

The post Houses extend their value lead over apartments appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 10:40 Source

Yesterday my seventeen-year-old nephew told me he was advising a range of folks on how to make dog money. Maybe this is the crack-up boom.

The post Get dawg money! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 10:20 Source

As we know, the Morrison vaccine rollout is going poorly, missing all targets: And lagging the developed world horribly: The principal driver of the failure is the cack-handed procurement policy. In its usual style, rather than purchase a diverse range of well-considered vaccines. It went all-in on one politically connected version when it found itself

The post Another Morrison vaccine hits the skids appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 10:00 Source

ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence: Despite a1% fall in overall #confidence, the share of respondents expecting ‘bad times’ in ‘current economic conditions’ dropped to 12%, the lowest in over 40 years. #Positivity about the near-term outlook is high. #ausecon @DavidPlank12 pic.twitter.com/hfoN9WEQSt — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) May 10, 2021

The post ANZ consumer confidence slows appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 10:00 Source

By Ad astra   Does anyone doubt that Josh Frydenberg covets the role of Prime Ministership of Australia? If he succeeds, would he be the first Jewish PM in this country? Search though I have, I cannot discover whether there has ever been an Australian PM of the Jewish faith. Perhaps one of you may know.…

The post Prime Minister Frydenberg appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 09:40 Source

CoreLogic has released its May housing chart pack, which reports that the nation’s rental growth has gone vertical, soaring by 4.9% in the year to April 2021: As shown in the next chart, rental growth is solid to strong almost everywhere outside of Melbourne and Sydney, which have been hit hardest by the collapse in

The post CoreLogic: Rents have gone vertical appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 09:20 Source

The ferrous complex has shot clear of Planet Earth with spot losing its anchor. Paper was limit up plus all day yesterday but got hammered 5% last night as Chinese regulators dropped the jackboot on Dalian margin requirements. Steel is mad (note the table has several days of gains): Gone is any concern for the

The post Daily iron ore price update (to Mars) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 09:00 Source

Tech stocks sold off significantly overnight on Wall Street, bringing the rest of the risk complex down as inflation fears reared their ugly head once more, although European stocks escaped most of the carnage. The USD advanced against most of the majors with commodity prices coming off the boil slightly as a result, but most

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 09:00 Source

An interesting piece today from John Kehoe at the AFR on how the RBA seized control of fiscal policy: A month ago, Treasurer Frydenberg was on track to deliver an austerity budget. But for months, the RBA and Treasury had been trying to turn him around. Historically low unemployment was their goal. Frydenberg shifted his

The post Australia on track to become pin-up boy of MMT failure appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 08:47 Source

  Warning references to sexual assault and rape are contained in this article Normally I wouldn’t be repeating quotes from Peter Dutton, particularly as Spud has made it known that he will sue anybody who doesn’t show him the respect to which he feels he is entitled. Even so, when he glibly dismissed sexual assaults…

The post He Said, She Said ! appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 07:37 Source

A widely-shared graphic claims to show "overly ambitious" forecasts of renewables. We decided to check the sources.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 07:28 Source

Australia's major fossil fuel export customers are getting cold feet. What does that mean for the country's fossil-reliant economy?

The post Australia’s fossil exports are on increasingly shaky ground appeared first on RenewEconomy.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 06:18 Source

DXY held its ground last night as EUR rolled over a touch: The Australian dollar pumped and dumped. Its bearish head and shoulder top now has a bullish ascending triangle as well. The battle is joined! Gold firmed. Oil burned: Base metals flamed out: Big miners rallied on. The big Australians have been remarkably weak:

The post Australian dollar pumps and dumps as tech stocks crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 05:58 Source

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The vote to determine House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney’s fate in leadership is scheduled for Wednesday morning — after months of the No. 3 GOP member being at war with her own party.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 05:02 Source

Australia’s China divorce hits another milestone today. Following recent Morrison Government warmongering and ripping up VIC’s BRI deal, the blowback has arrived as the next commodity to be targeted is LNG: Two Chinese importers have been told to avoid Aussie LNG. China imported 29mt in  2020. About 10mt of that is above contract obligations. Recall

The post China drops jackboot on LNG, iron ore trade appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 00:10 Source

The hospitality and tourism industries continues to beg the federal government for access to cheap migrant workers, claiming they are facing the biggest labour shortages in decades. The article, published without question by the ABC, claims: Restaurants are being forced to slash opening hours because they cannot find suitable staff. The Queensland Tourism Industry Council

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 00:08 Source

As we know, the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) latest lending data reported the biggest ever boom in mortgage finance commitments, up a whopping 55% in the year to March 2021: Amid the mortgage frenzy, there are increasing signs that lenders are dropping lending standards. The latest example came yesterday when NAB owned U-Bank announced

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Visualizing the Recent Explosion in Lumber Prices – Visual Capitalist High-speed rail may hurt intermediate places: The role of long-haul economies – VOX Reducing Debt Via A Modern Debt Jubilee – Econ Intersect Federal Reserve turns the dollar into toilet paper – Asia Times Who’s Afraid of the Big

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