Blogotariat

Morgan Stanley with the note. Reports suggesting that the debt ceiling drama is inching toward a compromise agreement are good news indeed. The details emerging are still tentative,a final agreement is not yet in hand and,given the fraught state of politics in Washington, DC, legislative passage is not assured. That said, with the ‘X-date’ (when

The post X-date boom or bust? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Another Message Board

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’ve moved my irregular email news from Mailchimp to Substack. You can read it here. You can also follow me on Mastodon here

I’m also trying out Substack as a blogging platform. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack.

In last year’s state budget, the Queensland Government shocked the coal industry by stealthily hiking royalties. It included a top tier of 40% for coal prices above $300-a-tonne. The changes were in response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which sent coal prices soaring and generated record profits for coal miners. In response to the

The post QLD coal royalty hike a budget bonanza appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, reportedly engaged in a series of heated arguments with federal Labor MPs last week. The RBA governor warned them that the large salary increases they were backing would make inflation worse unless they were accompanied by increases in productivity. Ahead we have the Fair Work

The post Woke RBA still has no idea about wages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The US credit crunch rolls on. The use of Fed emergency facilities to cover deposit runs is still rising: Total bank credit is still falling and has not added a brass razoo in eight months: It was large banks that drove asset shrinkage this week: And total bank credit is now up just 1.79% year on

The post US credit crunch rolls on appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The excellent Michael HArtnett at BofA on the new AI bubble.  Zeitgeist I: “I mean, if you’re going to lose your job and be replaced by AI in the next few years, might as well own some AI as a hedge, no?” Zeitgeist II: “Bubbles not easy, put plenty of investors out of business. But

The post AI bubble intensifies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Iron ore bounced on Friday as markets got excited about an X-date resolution. Dalian futures jumped: SGX and rebar were more sober: After all, the US barely consumes iron ore. On the other hand, China consumes 70% of the global seaborne market. How is it going? Badly. Car sales are slowing and property sales remain

The post America does not consume iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Next time you go to Europe for a holiday, or your child jets out to the same for a gap year, make sure you pick up a few million tonnes of LNG. Right now you can get Aussie gas for $11.80Gj. In Asia, it is still closer to $14Gj: When you get home, you can

The post Gas cartel launches operation ‘Destroy Albo’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The US debt ceiling negotiations were finally resolved on Friday, giving Wall Street and other risk markets a boost. The latest core PCE (personal consumption) index showed an uptick in spending in the US which sent inflation expectations higher and boosted the USD as a result. Currency markets continue to flow to the safety of

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Jonathan Mott, a veteran banking analyst, has conducted a survey of around 1640 mortgage brokers who are responsible for 70% of home loans sold in Australia. The survey backs up concerns about “mortgage prisoners” who are unable to refinance loans because the sharp rise in interest rates and fall in home prices over the last

The post Banks “extend and pretend” as mortgage arrears rocket higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

One of my favourite podcasts with journalist, scholar and gentleman Hugh Pope. Hugh has just brought to publication a book written by his father in 1990. But being well ahead of its time, the book was unpublishable. It pursued Aristotle’s point that elections installed a governing class and were therefore oligarchic.