Blogotariat

Goldman with a tidy note on the end of Chinese growth. China’s sluggish growth, nearly non-existent inflation, and low nominal interest rates this year raise the question of whether China’s economy could undergo “Japanification” in the coming years. In this note, we revisit the China-Japan comparison, examine the question “what made Japan Japan” in the

The post Chinese Japanification “more extreme” than Japan appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Deutsche with the note. I will post more when the full story comes to hand. This morning we’ve published the latest annual Long-Term Study, our flagship pieceof the year from my team. This year’s is called “The History (and Future) of Recessions”. This is the final part of a trilogy that started before the pandemic

The post 323 years of recessions appeared first on MacroBusiness.

JPM with the note.  Oil prices are back up 27% since 2Q23, posing downside to growth • Some of the move owes to stronger demand (1/4), but a larger supply shock (3/4) will be a drag • Our model suggests global GDP could be damped by 0.5%-pt (ar) over two quarters if prices sustained •

The post Oil going to $120? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate still negative at –0.5%. Negative reads have now persisted since August 2022. Indicator correctly predicted growth slowdown in 2023. Growth outlook for next 3–9 months remains poor with per capita GDP declines likely to continue. The economy continues to move through an extended period of weakness. Despite

The post Leading index projects endless per capita recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Another fake left minister has come together with another fake left journo to produce more fake left housing propaganda at the epicentre of fake left property publishing. The years Julie Collins spent as a little girl living in a large public housing estate north of Hobart were some of the most stable in her early

The post Woe is Albo’s horrific housing hypocrite appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has summoned German ambassador Patricia Flor after Berlin’s top diplomat, Annalena Baerbock, referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “dictator.” 

The ambassador “was summoned to the Chinese Foreign Ministry [on Sunday],” a spokesman from the German Foreign Ministry told AFP on Monday.

The facade surrounding Australia’s extreme immigration policy continues to crumble. Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Australia’s population surged by a record 563,200 in the year to March 2023, driven by unprecedented net overseas migration of 454,300: This urge in immigration has been driven by the strongest international student inflows in

Over the weekend, The Courier Mail described Queensland’s housing market as a “pressure cooker” resembling the “home buyer hunger games”: HOMES are being snapped up within hours as Queensland’s pressure cooker housing market sparks a spring selling frenzy, with new listings failing to keep with an insatiable buyer demand. “Records are being broken across the

The post Queensland gears up for epic property boom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The AFR reports that the Albanese government is planning to fast-track visa approvals for highly paid skilled migrants who earn at least $120,000: “The government has indicated to stakeholders the salary threshold for access to the new high-skill visa stream is likely to be around $120,000, but potentially as high as $150,000, according to sources

The post Labor to fast-track ‘skilled’ visas appeared first on MacroBusiness.

DXY is still powering: AUD is firming anyway: CNY only goes down: Oil only goes up: Dirt yawn: EM yawn: Junk yawn: Yields know oil: Stocks can’t hold if oil runs on: AUD is massively oversold on CFTC: CTAs likewise: Credit Agricole has triggered a positional long, though it does not have a great recent

The post Autralian dollar massively oversold appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that net overseas migration rocketed to a record high 454,300 in the year to March 2023, which lifted the population by 563,200: The June quarter national accounts also suggested that Australia’s population ballooned by 626,000 over the 2022-23 financial year: The unprecedented boom in immigration was