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MacroBusiness Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 09:00 Source

It’s not yet entirely clear what this means: Resources Minister Madeleine King has demanded the three major east coast gas producers sign a government-drafted deal that may include what some industry figures slammed as an “unworkable” and distortionary price cap mechanism to shield domestic manufacturers. …After receiving three separate heads of agreements from the key

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Your Democracy Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 08:44 Source

Washington has no objections to Kiev using Western-supplied weapons to target territories that may decide to join Russia, as the US considers the vote to do so illegitimate, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday. 

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The Australian Independent Media Network Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 06:00 Source

I was immediately taken aback when I read that the Opposition was negotiating “in good faith” with the Government for their support in introducing the National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC). Good faith sounds more like bargaining for an exemption from the obvious. At first, I thought I was mistaken. Negotiating in good faith with an Opposition…

The post Put niceties aside, Albo appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 00:10 Source

The National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation (NHFIC) had forecast in February that some 550,000 new homes will be built over the next three years. However, CEO Nathan Dal Bon warns that higher borrowing costs due to rising interest rates will slow construction activity in the housing sector at the same time as the Albanese

The post Albo’s Big Australia means crippling housing shortages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 00:05 Source

The past fortnight has seen analysts lift their forecast peak in Australia’s official cash rate (OCR) in the wake of the aggressive monetary actions of the US Federal Reserve. Last week, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans raised the bank’s forecast for the terminal OCR from 3.35% to 3.6% by February 2023. Westpac was yesterday joined

The post Interest rate bulls run rampant appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Not going out: how the cost of living crisis is destroying young people’s social lives – The Guardian Dow falls 300 points as surging dollar adds to market woes, S&P heads for new 2022 closing low – CNBC Dow Loses Over 200 Points, British Pound Drops To Record Low

The post Links 28 September 2022 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 20:51 Source

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called the elections a “sham” and “a flagrant violation of international law and an affront to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that underpin the international system.”

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 18:54 Source

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 17:49 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 16:30 Source

A mild bounce for Asian stocks following a dreadful start of the trading week but risk markets remain extremely nervous and this is likely to be shortlived as recession fears mount amid rising interest rates. The USD has slipped a little against the major currencies, but its all relative given the near collapse in Pound

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 16:28 Source

As closure dates of coal plants are brought forward, EnergyCo powers ahead with what will be the largest standby network batte

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 15:42 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 14:34 Source

Markets have ridden the wave of liquidity from global central banks and governments over the last few years, but has it crested or is it yet to peak? This compelling question is something the investment managers at Nucleus Wealth, MB Fund and Walk the World Fund are keen to discuss with you at our first

The post Will this historic bull market end with a historic bear market? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 14:25 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 14:00 Source

A timely note from Westpac. I am not concerned about this.  Demand is going to fall materially globally and deliver a nasty trade shock just as an inventory cycle triggers a reverse bullwhip effect. These are circumstances in which imports and exporters are going to absorb FX impacts in their margins, not pass them on.

The post Will the falling Australian dollar lift inflation? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 13:55 Source

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 13:32 Source

Be careful who you praise and the degree of zeal you do it with. The slain Shinzo Abe, shot dead in Nara on July 8, towered over Japanese politics. In doing so, he cast a lengthy shadow. In death, this shadow continues to grow ever more darkly. The reaction from certain figures outside Japan left…

The post Whitewashing at Shinzo Abe’s State Funeral appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 13:30 Source

Bond opportunity anyone? This analysis nicely illustrates what a moveable feast is the notion of a neutral rate of interest. Moreover, in the US it may be that there are long lags in monetary policy effects but not in Australia where household debt dependency and floating rate mortgages transmit tightening faster. Nomura has the outlook.

The post Interest rates to skyrocket then crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 13:23 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 13:00 Source

I noted yesterday how the bond market had aggressively lifted its interest rate expectations and now believes Australia’s official cash rate (OCR) will peak at 4.15% by mid 2023. This would lift the average discount variable mortgage rate to 7.50% – more than double the 3.45% that presided in April before the Reserve Bank of

The post Lunatic RBA must fight “crazy” markets appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 12:30 Source

Two charts to consider. First, consumer confidence is off the lows: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.1% last week, hitting a four-month high. Continued economic strength despite 225bp of rate hikes over the past 5 months may be quelling fears of a sharp downturn. #ausecon @cfbirch @arindam_chky @RoyMorganAus pic.twitter.com/ZHw9pwL7OO — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) September 26,

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 12:00 Source

August has proven to be a shocker for New Zealand’s housing market, with prices continuing to tumble and supply swelling in response to the Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes. First, QV’s house price index plunged 5.5% over the quarter – an acceleration from the 4.9% decrease in quarterly values reported in July. Every major

The post New Zealand house prices drown in sea of listings appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 11:40 Source

The awesome Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley gives us a one-two punch this week. Can You Hear Me Now? Last week’s Fed meeting gave us the 75bps hike most investors were expecting and similar messaging to what we heard at Jackson Hole a month ago – i.e., the Fed means business with inflation and is

The post “Lookout for something to break” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 11:40 Source

The six policy priorities of the von der Leyen Commission: State of play in autumn 2022

 

Written by Etienne Bassot.

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 11:00 Source

While crazed markets are still pricing Downunder economies off US interest rates, the pivot to more dovish positioning is underway in Australia and New Zealand. The recent RBA minutes clearly had the yips: The outlook for global economic growth had deteriorated and posed a key uncertainty. Central banks in several large advanced economies had expressed

The post RBNZ tracks RBA towards dovish pivot appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 11:00 Source

The Market Ear with the latest on market internals. MOVE on the move (again) Bond volatility surged today again. Will this take out year highs and revisit Corona panic highs. You know things are extreme in bond world when the recent VIX rise looks “tiny” compared to MOVE’s trajectory since last autumn. Refinitiv Fed destroyed

The post Blood seeps into the streets appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 10:55 Source

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 10:45 Source

Interviewer: I’ve been told Dinsdale Piranha nailed your head to the floor. Stig: No. Never. He was a smashing bloke. He used to buy his mother flowers and that. He was like a brother to me. Interviewer: But the police have film of Dinsdale actually nailing your head to the floor. Stig: (pause) Oh yeah,…

The post Why Peter Dutton Is Such A Cuddly Koala… appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 10:40 Source

Here we are again with another half-arsed solution to the Evil Gas Cartel: Federal and state governments will stop short of handing the energy market operator direct control of the east coast gas market, but could give AEMO the power to divert “available” gas into domestic markets under a suite of market reforms proposed on

The post Evil Gas Cartel to be mismanaged by AEMO appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, September 27, 2022 - 10:20 Source

The ferrous complex was relatively serene on September 26, 2022: Don’t be fooled. A pre-holiday restock is entirely capable of holding prices amid global carnage. But that does not a summer make. Iron ore is still far too high for a global recession led by Chinese property and that is what is fast coming down

The post Daily iron ore price update (serene) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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