Articles from MacroBusiness

Goldman doves up on Fed, lifts AUD

And so it begins, from Goldman which has been far too hawkish this cycle all along: hike in December is still very likely (in our view 90%) probability of a move in March has now fallen to slightly below 50% A decision to pause in March would also be consistent with the likelihood that tariff-related

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Keating’s superannuation monster is out of control

By Leith van Onselen The Australian’s Judith Sloan has continued her commendable attack against Paul Keating’s compulsory superannuation monster, describing it as “one of the costliest and most ineffective retirement models in the world”: Most people think Paul Keating has four children. In fact, he has five. The fifth is compulsory superannuation: super for short…

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Housing finance records dead cat bounce

By Leith van Onselen Today’s housing finance data for October, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted a rebound in finance commitments, with both investor and owner-occupied demand lifting. According to the ABS, the total number of owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by 2.3% in October in seasonally adjusted terms but has

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Off the plan Sydney buyers sink underwater

By Leith van Onselen With Sydney unit values down 6.5% since the June 2017 peak, according to CoreLogic: Buyers that purchased off-the-plan apartments near the peak of the boom are now sinking into negative equity and settlement risk is rising: Sydneysiders who snapped up off-the-plan apartments at the peak of the property boom are now

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Why isn’t Chinese stimulus working?

Via Goldman: …two challenges brought us here. Internally, policymakers’ efforts to constrain the growth of shadow banking and reduce financial risks worked almost too well. Financial regulations introduced in 2017 and early 2018 led to a meaningful contraction in shadow banking, which slowed overall credit growth and tightened credit conditions, particularly for private companies. And externally,

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Property Council: Lower immigration would boost wages

By Leith van Onselen The Property Council has commissioned modelling which shows that lowering immigration into NSW would boost real wages. From The SMH: The NSW economy could grow by $130 billion less over the coming decade if net migration to the state was halved, as has been called for by Premier Gladys Berejiklian… It

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Victorian Premier turns infrastructure gun on ScoMo

By Leith van Onselen The vertical fiscal imbalances plaguing the federation has reared its ugly head again, with Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews, writing to Prime Minister Scott Morrison demanding billions of dollars in funding from the federal government to cope with unrelenting immigration-driven population growth. From The SMH: In a letter to Prime Minister Scott

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A new Aussie GDP threat emerges

Oddly enough it’s coal, from Clyde Russell: It’s not shaping up as a merry Christmas for coal exporters to Asia as the region’s top buyers, China and India, pull back from the recent trend of strong imports. The Chinese authorities appear to be making good on a commitment to try and limit the country’s imports

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ASX, Aussie banks, Australian dollar smashed

The Australian dollar has gapped lower this morning on lousy Chinese data: XJO is down heavily and looks likely to close at new two year lows: Bonds continue to boom: Big Iron is solid on hopes of MAOR from Pooh of China: Big Gas is down despite OPEC: Big Gold is flying as the Fed

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RBA panic intensifies

From RBA boffin Christopher Kent today: Thank you for the opportunity to speak at this Bloomberg event today. I’d like to address some issues about how monetary policy decisions taken elsewhere influence interest rates here in Australia. Australia is a small open economy that is influenced by developments in the rest of the world. Financial

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