It’s Groundhog Day for Aussie households. As I noted yesterday, the gas cartel shock of the 2022 Ukraine war profiteering is once again landing on households as state subsidies roll off. Further evidence has appeared in the credit card data. Westpac. Energy bill relief has been a key plank of the ‘cost of living’ support
It is amusing to watch some interest rate forecasters stick to tiny indicators. ANZ is one. After two consecutive months of decline, the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series has bounced back, from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June. The unemployment rate and the hours-based underutilisation rate (a broader measure of spare capacity) have been
Overnight saw Wall Street react negatively to the Trump Tariff Tirade via letters to all the countries the regime has not yet done a trade deal (read: all but 3) with a surprisingly high number chosen for most and with threats of retaliation if any country decided to match or even attempt to put in
Its the Tariff Trading Week! You get a deal – you get a deal – we all get a deal! By deal, I mean a letter from the Bully-in-Chief stating what tariff you have to accept, since there’s been less than three US trade deals actually made in the last 90 days. Stock markets in
The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.
In the history of the U.S economy, every now and then there is a major shift in the balance of forces impacting the path of both growth and economic policy. While the coverage of this most recent shift has so far flown under the radar, it represents a major demographic alteration to the U.S. labour
As we know, Victoria disease is ripping through the Australian economy like COVID did before it. It is the plague of too many Labor governments importing too many people, creating a constantly rising demand for state-managed services, which do not have the revenue sources to pay for them. This is called horizontal fiscal mismatch. The
Morgan Stanley with the note. The uncertainty of application of tariffs is one reason we have continually called for patience to see the affect of tariffs in hard data. Our models predict that inflation will take approximately four months to see the full effects of tariffs and potentially even eight moths for growth to react
Just imagine. You are a younger Australian, perhaps nearing the end of secondary school or nearing the completion of your university degree. Perhaps you are beavering away as a young tradie, have a half-decent gig with a large retailer, or are considering joining the freelance circuit as an IT or healthcare specialist. Odds are, you
Over the weekend, OPEC+ production was raised of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, above the initial projection of 411,000 bpd. With the goal of regaining market share and stabilizing prices, this action quickens the rollback of the voluntary supply reduction in 2023. Even with this rise, OPEC+’s spare capacity is still projected to
With the release of the latest labour account figures, it was revealed that the total number of filled jobs in the economy contracted for the first time since the March quarter of 2021. In the years since the Global Financial Crisis and in particular since the onset of the pandemic, the Australian economy has become